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Financial market update
Posted: 2022-Jun-06
Zaakirah Ismail (5 Min Read)
Unsupportive global conditions are expected to result in a moderately weaker rand during the remainder of this year. We foresee the rand breachingR16 to the dollar and trading closer to R16 to the dollar for most of the year.
Read ArticleThe Gender-Wage Gap in South Africa (Blog 2 of 2)
Posted: 2022-Mar-17
Michele Capazario and Bianca Capazario (9 min read)
Drivers of household carbon emissions in South Africa
Posted: 2021-Aug-25
Matthew Kensett (5 Min Read)
In this post, I investigate what drives the differences in carbon emissions patterns across South African households. I show that spending on energy, housing, and private transport are the largest contributors to total household consumption-based emissions in South Africa, mostly reflecting the emissions patterns of richer households. I also show that poorer households’ emissions come from consuming essential goods and services, such as energy, food, and clothing. I go on to consider the welfare implications of a carbon tax on households.Read Article
Did inequality contribute to the recent political unrest in KZN?
Posted: 2021-Aug-24
Sajid Sherif, Bianca Capazario and Michele Capazario (10 Min Read)
Several factors were behind the recent violence and looting in KwaZulu-Natal. This blog investigates whether inequality, after accounting for other factors, was a likely contributor to the unrest. Overall, we find a positive relationship between inequality and the prevalence of unrest at the municipal level.Read Article
What lies behind the recent rand strength
Posted: 2021-Jun-07
Zaakirah Ismail (3 Min Read)
Vulnerabilities prior to Covid19 meant that investor sentiment around South Africa (SA) was particularly fragile. The severity of the pandemic itself, further eroded investor sentiment, thereby weakening the rand and increasing market volatility. During this time, we saw the USDZAR trading at over R19/$. In recent weeks, however, the rand has gained substantial strength, and is now trading below R14/$. In this blog, we explore some of the reasons for the rands remarkable recovery. These include: 1) Dollar weakness on the back of global markets balancing US fiscal and monetary policy. 2) High real interest rates offered in SA, which continue to attract offshore investments and capital. 3) A historic current account surplus on the back of strong commodity prices; and 4) Stronger-than-expected tax revenue data easing growth concerns. With global risks such as rising US inflation at bay for now, the rand may continue to benefit. The rand may also find support from a continued commodities upswing which is supportive of the trade balance and growth. However, local risks remain. SA’s economic growth is still a source of concern for investors. SA still faces serious fiscal challenges, including large government debt and tricky negotiations around the public sector wage bill. Adding to this, the slow start to the COVID19 vaccination programme and the threat of a third Covid-19 wave could add downward pressure to overall investor sentiment. These real economy risks may limit future rand strength.Read Article
Demographic Gaps in South Africa Over Time (Blog 1 of as many as it takes)
Posted: 2021-Apr-15
Michele Capazario (4 Min Read)
Gender and racial inequality permeate the South African social landscape, even 25+ years after our democratization. This bias towards females and people of colour has inextricably created labour market tensions. Females and people of colour often earn substantially lower salaries for the same level of work. Even though affirmative action policies have been implemented across the country to some effect, not enough has been done to close the gap between earnings for people of colour and white individuals and separately for females and males. In this multi-part blog series, I look to discuss the gender and race salary differentials in the country, paying particular attention to the difference between conditional and unconditional wages.
Read ArticleThe Distribution of Carbon Emissions Across South African Households.
Posted: 2021-Apr-15
Matthew Kensett (5 Min Read)
In this blog, I show that carbon emissions are unequally distributed across South African households. Rich South Africans emit between 2 to 4 times the national average. I highlight several important implications: Rich South Africans need to reduce their carbon emissions drastically; an increase in emissions by poorer households should not be misconstrued as a failure to meet our climate goals; and, if all South Africans are to enjoy the consumption levels of rich South Africans, it is necessary to transition to a low-carbon economy. Read Article
How does Rural-Urban Migration Influence the Risk of Depression?
Posted: 2021-Apr-12
Bianca Capazario (4 Min Read)
Rural-urban migration is an integral component of the development process. While it is important to understand the factors driving the mobility of people, exploring the consequences of this mobility are equally, if not more, crucial. While rural-urban migration is often associated with improved economic opportunities, the migration process may also present new mental health risks. These risks are often introduced through prolonged periods of elevated stress, isolation, and loneliness. The following blog reflects on the impact of rural-urban migration on the mental health of the sampled South African migrant group. Read Article
Effective implementation of the Border Management Authority for better trade
Posted: 2021-Mar-25
Siwapiwe Madubela and Lauralyn Kaziboni
South Africa is embarking on a journey of a centralised border authority. See what Siwapiwe Madubela and Lauralyn Kaziboni think this could mean for trade in South Africa Read Article
How does Rural-Urban Migration Influence Subjective Physical Health Outcomes?
Posted: 2021-Mar-18
Bianca Capazario
DuringApartheid, black South Africans were not allowed to permanently relocate to urban areas, but instead were forced to retain ties to rural ‘homelands’. These ties led to the development ofoscillatingorcirculartrends of rural-urban migration. Today, these patterns of oscillating migration are still highly prevalent. While rural-urban migration is often associated with improved access to healthcare, living standards, education levels, and favourable employment opportunities, the migration process may also present new physical health risks. These risks may be introduced through the failure to attain either urban employment or adequate housing.The following blog reflects on the impact of rural-urban migration on the physical health of the sampled South African migrant group.Read Article
